Predictions and dates1910s1920sEvidence collection
Evidence bundle · explicit prediction
1915, 1918 and 1920
After 1914 passed without the expected events, the publications attached new expectations to 1915, 1918 and 1920. The Finished Mystery (1917) and The Watch Tower of 1917 set out what was expected.
Last reviewed 19 September 2026
1915
The move from 1914 to 1915 is documented in the text of The Time Is at Hand itself: printings dated 1914 read ‘near the end of A.D. 1915’ where the 1889 edition read ‘by the end of A.D. 1914’. See the 1914 page.
1918
In September 1916 Russell mentioned, cautiously, that A.D. 73 ‘would correspond to April 1918’ while adding ‘we know of no time-limit here’. Source: The Watch Tower and Herald of Christ's Presence, 1 September 1916 After his death, the seventh volume of Studies in the Scriptures, The Finished Mystery (1917), was far less cautious.
prove that the Spring of 1918 will bring upon Christendom a spasm of anguish greater even than that experienced in the Fall of 1914. Reexamine the table of the Parallel Dispensations in STUDIES IN THE SCRIPTURES, Vol. 2, pages 246 and 247; change the 37 to 40, 70 to 73 and 1914 to 1918
Also, in the year 1918, when God destroys the churches wholesale and the church members by millions, it shall be that any that escape shall come to the works of Pastor Russell to learn the meaning of the downfall of 'Christianity.'
The organisation’s position or later explanation: Proclaimers p.632 groups these with 'hopes and expectations that have been ridiculed by critics' but 'rooted in a keen desire to see the fulfillment of... the unfailing promises of God'.
1917 · p.62 · C. J. Woodworth and G. H. Fisher (eds.), issued as posthumous work of C. T. Russell · International Bible Students Association / Peoples Pulpit Association
“prove that the Spring of 1918 will bring upon Christendom a spasm of anguish greater even than that experienced in the Fall of 1914. Reexamine the table of the Parallel Dispensations in STUDIES IN THE SCRIPTURES, Vol. 2, pages 246 and 247; change the 37 to 40, 70 to 73 and 1914 to 1918”
Provenance and verification note for The Finished Mystery (Studies in the Scriptures vol. 7), Commentary on Revelation 1:9-10 region (Parallel Dispensations)
Confidence note. Wording confirmed in the Gutenberg text and in the 1918-edition scan OCR; page 62 is the standard citation and was not read from a page header (supported).
Scan provenance. Project Gutenberg eBook #46016 (public domain transcription); 1918-edition scan also at https://archive.org/details/TheFinishedMystery (daveignatius).
1917 · p.485 · C. J. Woodworth and G. H. Fisher (eds.) · International Bible Students Association
“Also, in the year 1918, when God destroys the churches wholesale and the church members by millions, it shall be that any that escape shall come to the works of Pastor Russell to learn the meaning of the downfall of 'Christianity.'”
Provenance and verification note for The Finished Mystery (Studies in the Scriptures vol. 7), Commentary on Ezekiel 24:25-26
Confidence note. Wording confirmed in the 1918-edition scan OCR; running header '484 The Finished Mystery' appears shortly before the passage, consistent with p. 485.
Scan provenance. Internet Archive (daveignatius) scan of the 1918 printing; text also in Project Gutenberg #46016.
1917 · p.258 · C. J. Woodworth and G. H. Fisher (eds.) · International Bible Students Association
“And every island fled away.—Even the republics will disappear in the fall of 1920. And the mountains were not found.—Every kingdom of earth will pass away, be swallowed up in anarchy.”
Verse-by-verse commentary; elsewhere (Rev. 11:13 comment) the book says 'We anticipate that the "earthquake" will occur early in 1918, and that the "fire" will come in the fall of 1920.'
Provenance and verification note for The Finished Mystery (Studies in the Scriptures vol. 7), Commentary on Revelation 16:20
Confidence note. Wording confirmed in the Project Gutenberg transcription; the 1918-edition OCR is illegible at this passage; page 258 is the standard citation.
Scan provenance. Project Gutenberg #46016; also archive.org TheFinishedMysteryTextVersion (daveignatius).
October 1917 · Watch Tower Bible and Tract Society
“The parallel, therefore, would establish definitely that the harvest would close forty years thereafter; to wit, in the spring of A.D. 1918. If this be true, and the evidence is very conclusive that it is true, then we have only a few months in which to labor before the great night settles down when no man can work.”
Builds on 1878 as the start of the harvest and the Great Pyramid measurements.
15 December 1917 · Watch Tower Bible and Tract Society
“We count this as another one of the strong proofs that the harvest is nearing the end, and that in all probability the Spring of 1918 will mark the beginning of the closing up of all activities of the kingdom class on this side the veil.”
Said of the publication of Volume Seven (The Finished Mystery) in the year-end report.
Provenance and verification note for The Watch Tower and Herald of Christ's Presence, Annual report of the Society's activities for 1917
Confidence note. Wording confirmed in the 1917 bound-volume OCR; the DECEMBER 15, 1917 issue header precedes the passage and Reprints marker 6183 follows it (the passage is on R6182).
Scan provenance. Internet Archive upload by Veillez.org of the 1917 volume. Public domain.
Notes. The same volume prints a reader letter: 'it is thought that 1918 may be the year that the church will be taken from the world' (member expectation).
Accessed. 19 September 2026 · Source ID.src-wt-1917-1215-annual-report-1918
1 September 1916 · Watch Tower Bible and Tract Society
“Incidentally we remark that some historians put the end of the Jewish Time of Trouble as April A.D. 73, which would correspond to April 1918. Are we regretful that the harvest work continues? Nay, verily”
Russell hedges on 1918 by parallel with A.D. 73, while saying 'we know of no time-limit here'.
And every island fled away.—Even the republics will disappear in the fall of 1920. And the mountains were not found.—Every kingdom of earth will pass away, be swallowed up in anarchy.
Christendom’s churches were not destroyed in 1918 and republics did not disappear in 1920. The ‘harvest’ did not close. The organisation’s 1993 history does not discuss the 1918 and 1920 dates individually; it describes the Bible Students’ early expectations generally as hopes ‘rooted in a keen desire to see the fulfillment of God’s promises’, and as ‘hopes and expectations that have been ridiculed by critics’. Source: Jehovah's Witnesses—Proclaimers of God's Kingdom (jv), 1993
1993 · pp.631-633 · Watchtower Bible and Tract Society of New York
“This later led to the idea—sometimes stated as a possibility, sometimes more firmly—that since the seventh millennium of human history would begin in 1975, events associated with the beginning of Christ's Millennial Reign might start to take place then. ... some of their time calculations and the expectations that they associated with these gave rise to serious disappointments. Following 1925, meeting attendance dropped dramatically in some congregations in France and Switzerland. Again, in 1975, there was disappointment”
Adds that after 1975 'some withdrew from the organization. Others ... were disfellowshipped', and that 'the number who defected was relatively small'.
Provenance and verification note for Jehovah's Witnesses—Proclaimers of God's Kingdom (jv), Chapter 28, Testing and Sifting From Within — 'Were Their Expectations Correct?'
Confidence note. Opened on wol; page marker 633 precedes the quoted sentences.
1993 · p.78 · Watchtower Bible and Tract Society of New York
“'We may confidently expect,' stated the booklet Millions Now Living Will Never Die, back in 1920, 'that 1925 will mark the return [from the dead] of Abraham, Isaac, Jacob and the faithful prophets of old' ... The year 1925 came and went. Some abandoned their hope.”
Sub-heading 'Unrealized Hopes Are Not Unique to Our Day'; compares with the apostles' 'misplaced expectations'.
1993 · p.104 · Watchtower Bible and Tract Society of New York
“The book Life Everlasting—In Freedom of the Sons of God, released ... in 1966, pointed to 1975. ... Brother Franz ... stated, in essence: 'It could. But we are not saying. All things are possible with God. But we are not saying. ... But the big point of it all is this, dear friends: Time is short.'”
Sub-heading 'Say, What Does This 1975 Mean?'; footnote h lists cautionary articles (w68 5/1, w74 6/15, w75 5/1).
Provenance and verification note for Jehovah's Witnesses—Proclaimers of God's Kingdom (jv), Chapter 8, Declaring the Good News Without Letup (1942-1975)
1993 · pp.133 (and footnote i) · Watchtower Bible and Tract Society of New York
“From Mr. Barbour ... Russell also came to be persuaded that Christ's invisible presence had begun in 1874. ... [fn. i] A clearer understanding of Biblical chronology was published in 1943, in the book 'The Truth Shall Make You Free,' and it was then refined the following year”
Official account that the 1874 presence date rested on flawed chronology corrected in 1943-44. The chapter also records early expectations that 1914 would bring the Church's glorification and that 'months and then years passed, and the Bible Students did not receive their heavenly reward as they had anticipated.'
“Those were hopes, not prophecies.” The organisation’s own description, and it is quoted here. The 1917 wording (‘prove’, ‘establish definitely’, ‘only a few months’) is stronger than ‘hope’, and readers can weigh it.
Confidence. The 1917 text was read on Project Gutenberg and in a 1918-edition scan; the 1916 and 1917 Watch Tower passages in the bound annual volumes (wording verified; the 1916 and December 1917 passages are dated from their issue headers; the October 1917 passage is cited by month because the header nearest to it is not legible). Rating: explicit prediction.
Sources cited on this page
Show all 7 sources, in date order
Each opens a full record with links, provenance and a confidence note.
1 September 1916 · Watch Tower Bible and Tract Society
“Incidentally we remark that some historians put the end of the Jewish Time of Trouble as April A.D. 73, which would correspond to April 1918. Are we regretful that the harvest work continues? Nay, verily”
1917 · p.62 · C. J. Woodworth and G. H. Fisher (eds.), issued as posthumous work of C. T. Russell · International Bible Students Association / Peoples Pulpit Association
“prove that the Spring of 1918 will bring upon Christendom a spasm of anguish greater even than that experienced in the Fall of 1914. Reexamine the table of the Parallel Dispensations in STUDIES IN THE SCRIPTURES, Vol. 2, pages 246 and 247; change the 37 to 40, 70 to 73 and 1914 to 1918”
1917 · p.485 · C. J. Woodworth and G. H. Fisher (eds.) · International Bible Students Association
“Also, in the year 1918, when God destroys the churches wholesale and the church members by millions, it shall be that any that escape shall come to the works of Pastor Russell to learn the meaning of the downfall of 'Christianity.'”
1917 · p.258 · C. J. Woodworth and G. H. Fisher (eds.) · International Bible Students Association
“And every island fled away.—Even the republics will disappear in the fall of 1920. And the mountains were not found.—Every kingdom of earth will pass away, be swallowed up in anarchy.”
October 1917 · Watch Tower Bible and Tract Society
“The parallel, therefore, would establish definitely that the harvest would close forty years thereafter; to wit, in the spring of A.D. 1918. If this be true, and the evidence is very conclusive that it is true, then we have only a few months in which to labor before the great night settles down when no man can work.”
15 December 1917 · Watch Tower Bible and Tract Society
“We count this as another one of the strong proofs that the harvest is nearing the end, and that in all probability the Spring of 1918 will mark the beginning of the closing up of all activities of the kingdom class on this side the veil.”
1993 · pp.631-633 · Watchtower Bible and Tract Society of New York
“This later led to the idea—sometimes stated as a possibility, sometimes more firmly—that since the seventh millennium of human history would begin in 1975, events associated with the beginning of Christ's Millennial Reign might start to take place then. ... some of their time calculations and the expectations that they associated with these gave rise to serious disappointments. Following 1925, meeting attendance dropped dramatically in some congregations in France and Switzerland. Again, in 1975, there was disappointment”